5. Early voting starts now!:
Which means that the political environment, nationally and in swing states, starts to really matter.
It’s also a reminder that Election Day, especially this year, is more like election month.
4. The Bloomberg Effect:
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg isn’t done dipping into his massive personal fortune to beat Trump in the fall.
Any doubt whether Bloomberg will actually spend what he says should have been cleared up by the $1 billion — yes, BILLION — he spent on his own campaign for the Democratic nomination between November 2019 and March 2020.
Trump, who has long been bothered by Bloomberg’s wealth and time as mayor of his hometown, immediately responded to the Florida spending news.
And since April, Trump has led in a total of one poll conducted in the state. Biden had led in 25. Three have showed a tie.
Bloomberg’s heavy spending — in addition to what Biden’s campaign (and the various super PACs affiliated with him) are dropping — could help the Democrat not just win the state but win the White House.
3. Joe Biden’s schedule becomes an issue:
Trump, desperate to change the subject from the coronavirus, has zeroed in on his opponent’s schedule.
Trump had also taken to calling the former VP “Joe Hiden” in attempt to drive home what he believes to be a weak spot. (It’s also, of course, a tacit concession that Trump’s attempts to label Biden with past nicknames has failed.)
Biden has, without question, kept a lighter schedule than Trump who, in pursuit of acting as though the coronavirus is gone (or going), has taken to holding in-person rallies with thousands of attendees — many of whom are unmasked.
Watch to see how active Biden is this week and in the coming week. And whether he can beat back Trump’s latest nickname for him.
2. Trump is losing the “law and order” debate:
Trump has spent much of the last six weeks trying to paint the protests — some violent, most not — over racial injustice the country as evidence of rampant lawlessness in the country.
Asked whether the “biggest problem” in the country is “riots in America, or racism in the criminal justice system,” the numbers broke down like this:
Minnesota: 42% riots/51% racism
Nevada: 41% riots/53% racism
New Hampshire: 40% riots/51% racism
Wisconsin: 46% riots/46% racism
That is bad news for Trump. Because numbers like those suggest he loses if the election is about racial inequality in the wake of the death of George Floyd in late May. And he loses if the election is about coronavirus (much more on that below).
Which leaves him with not a lot of good options at the moment.
Trump, because he is Trump, will likely not back away from his fear tactics around “law and order,” largely because he knows that he simply cannot win an election centered on the coronavirus.
But these new swing state numbers suggest that Trump has a lot of selling still do on the issue between now and November. 3. And the public may not be buying.
1. Trump’s coronavirus problem isn’t getting better:
Trump is heavily invested in the idea that the coronavirus is getting better.
And unfortunately for Trump, the public — or at least a large chunk of the public — isn’t buying what the President is selling.
The consistency of those numbers coupled with how low they are suggest that public sentiment is hardened against Trump. And it continues to have a negative effect on his overall numbers against Biden in the general election.
So, Trump can say the country is “rounding the corner.” But there’s no evidence — from a public health or political perspective — that makes it true.