2020 has been a very difficult year for the whole world and, in particular, the United States Twelve major cities have announced curfews, 17,000 troops are stationed on the streets, governors in at least 24 states have called for the National Guard to help, and more than 11,000 people have been arrested since the video of a white policeman strangling George Floyd went viral.
And as if all this was not enough, the country has the world’s worst statistics on mortality from coronaviruses – more than 100 thousand, almost twice as many Americans who died in Vietnam.
Millions of people have already lost their jobs, and it is expected that millions of others will join them in a recession.
Unsurprisingly, many of Trump’s most ardent supporters do not show much enthusiasm for him to serve another presidential term.
What should Trump do to once again became the president of the country? In fact, there are many reasons to believe that what is happening now will ensure his re-election. Despite his many shortcomings, Trump is surprisingly resilient. In terms of maintaining his seat in the White House, he faces three challenges.
First, he must convince the Americans that China is responsible for the deaths from the coronavirus, as well as the helpless and mediocre state governors and mayors of the city, and not its chaotic administration, which could not cope with the pandemic. If mortality, as expected, falls after the summer, he will win. If reliable treatment appeared by then, this would help him in the future.
Secondly, social unrest and protests should weaken, probably in the coming weeks.
Trump will argue that it was his tough law enforcement policy that suppressed the violence that erupted after Floyd’s death, and at the same time assured voters alarmed by police abuses.
His third task is economics. This is the easiest option for him.
Even with more than a quarter of American workers receiving unemployment benefits – and after a slight increase in the number of employees yesterday – Trump may argue that the fastest way to revitalize the economy is to further reduce taxes and repeal even more business regulation.
Most large corporations do not want Democrats to return to power, with the prospect of higher taxes and red tape. Now they can help him by announcing expansion plans and new hiring schemes, promising even more if he wins in November.
Furthermore, he basically needs a lot more publicity this time and needs to act as fast as possible. It will not be unexpected if he makes a lot of taboo industries legal in order to gain votes from its users as well as people who run those companies. He may even think of further legalizing the gambling industry, which is considered illegal in some of the states and what’s more, it could affect Canada as well. It is a known fact that a lot of people in the world are involved in live casino games. The US is statistically known for the number of people who play live roulette from Canada and other games. This move could be helpful in acquiring supporters in this country too.
A solution to these problems is indeed achievable.
He also defends the peculiar American law that prevails in some states when they walk with machine guns thrown over their shoulder and with a pistol holster on their hip.
His campaign is currently lobbying for postal voting in states where the process can benefit him, but against it in states where he risks losing.
All this makes him a formidable candidate in 2020.
Demography also favours him: in the last election, Hillary Clinton won among voters aged 18 to 39, and Trump won among those over 40.
These older Americans account for more than 70 per cent of the elective age population, and they tend to vote more enthusiastically than younger ones.
Largely thanks to Trump, America is now more polarized, especially by age, than ever in its recent history. In social networks, many complain that family gatherings have become impossible due to irreconcilable differences of opinion regarding the president.
Trump also benefits from a psychological phenomenon that has received scientific research in recent years. People are stubborn in their beliefs. Studies show that most of us cling to our beliefs, even after they have clearly shown that the facts do not confirm our beliefs.
He also benefits from deep divisions in the Democratic Party, which is torn between progressive people who want European-style benefits such as universal health care and Democrats who are corporate-friendly, such as Joe Biden, a prospective candidate who is tarnished.
Finally, Trump is favoured by a peculiar method of electing American presidents. Trump is the fourth president of 45 to lose the popular vote – the total number of votes cast at the national level – but still won the White House.
It is not the citizens of the country as a whole who vote for the presidents, but the “electors” in each state as part of a process called the “electoral college.”
The founders of the United States designed the system in this way because they were afraid that rabble might someday choose a madman or a fanatic: this technique was a counteraction to the power of the crowd.
The electoral college prefers sparsely populated rural states, which tend to vote for Republicans, against more densely populated urban states, whose devotion is more on the side of the Democrats. Simply put, your vote in Wyoming (population 572,000) is worth more than in California (40 million)
It goes without question that this November’s presidential election will be one of the most difficult in the history of the United States. The coronavirus, as well as protests raging around the country, have had a devastating impact. Donald Trump has a lot to do if he really wishes to be elected for the second term. His popularity is declining, however he is still considered to be the main favourite.
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